Transport for London have released an important ‘Catford Town Centre Traffic Forecasting Report’ dated May 2021.
The AECOM report gives highway assignment forecasts for 2026, 2031 and 2041, both without and with the scheme. It explains the forecasting assumptions and presents the results from the ‘Without Scheme’ and ‘With Scheme’ forecasts.
AECOM make clear that this report does not focus on the assessment of bus or cycle impacts, or local access issues. These will be covered by operational modelling which is being undertaken in parallel. They say: “It should be noted that as this is a strategic model the analysis.”
Data gathered before May 2021 maybe questioned as this is the Covid and pre Covid period. Indeed, AECOM say: “Assume[d] growth according to London Plan 2016 and do not allow for changes in behaviour arising from the COVID-19 pandemic.”
The wisdom of excluding local traffic movements when significant changes in population and density have been approved in strategic planning documents produced by Lewisham Council may also be questioned. An increase in local traffic movements to access residential developments will have an impact. These planned changes post date the London Plan 2016.
The experts’ report assumes that the Silvertown Tunnel is present in all forecast years.
The report’s conclusions include the fact that delays generally increase as a result of the scheme, however more efficient routeing for some traffic on movements such as the A21 southbound [towards Bromley] through the gyratory means that some trips are forecast to experience an reduction in journey time through the area. For other movements, such as the A21 northbound, the routeing impact is neutral.
Catford-Town-Centre-Major-Road-Network-traffic-report-May-2021-TfL-Part-of-Strategic-OBCTfL say that they will undertake further modelling from June 2023 through the concept design stage. This modelling work will be updated along the evolution of the scheme. The modelling work should conclude and the concept design be finalised in the beginning of 2024.
Photograph credit to @Archoptical